The Oregon School Administrator

Oregon’s December quarterly economic revenue forecast came in about as good as we could have hoped for, landing just over $300 million above the previous projection. While this is welcome news, the state still faces an estimated $600 million budget gap—driven largely by the impacts of HR 1—and the outlook for the 2027–29 and 2029–31 biennia grows more challenging as those impacts compound. Over the past several weeks, the COSA team has been actively meeting with key legislators, reinforcing that our priorities begin and end with Oregon’s students. We continue to emphasize the critical role the Education Stability Fund could play in preventing near-term cuts and buying the state time to prepare more thoughtfully for the difficult fiscal landscape ahead. At the same time, significant uncertainties at the federal level—including the recent transfer of major U.S. Department of Education functions to other agencies and rumors of substantial federal education funding reductions in FY 2026—add new layers of concern.

Meanwhile, Oregon’s schools and districts continue to do what they have always done: serve as the anchor of support for the children and families in their communities. In many places, educators are operating food banks, coordinating meal delivery for families afraid to leave their homes, and responding to a noticeable decline in student attendance linked to community fear and instability. Through these challenges, COSA leaders across the state continue to step up with unwavering commitment, creativity, and heart. Their leadership during this uncertain moment makes clear—yet again—that Oregon’s educators remain the backbone of our state, ensuring that every student is seen, supported, and cared for, even in the most difficult circumstances.

In times of heightened immigration enforcement, our students and families need to know that their schools are safe, stable, and on their side. To support you in this work, COSA is hosting a free webinar:

Supporting Students and Families Amid Increased Immigration Enforcement: A Proactive Approach for Oregon’s K–12 School Leaders

Thursday, December 11 | 3:00–4:30 p.m. PST

This session will be led by Dr. Shelly Reggiani (Beaverton School District) and Carmen Xiomara Urbina (Eugene 4J School District), who will share practical strategies grounded in Oregon law to help leaders respond with clarity, consistency, and compassion.

The webinar will focus on:

• Proactive staff training – setting clear expectations, training staff on district policies, and ensuring consistent emergency communication.

• Safe & supportive schools – trauma-informed practices and coordinated crisis-response systems.

• Community connections – building strong partnerships with community-based organizations and social service agencies.

• Family resources & communication – providing accessible information, legal supports, and family emergency-preparedness tools.

Whether you are a superintendent, principal, central office leader, or support provider, this session is designed to help you organize your district’s response, strengthen your protocols, and better support students and families who may be directly affected.

Click here to register in advance for this meeting. After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the meeting.

Watch how the Mary Woodward Elementary School garden is not just long-lasting, but a living example of sustainability, collaboration, and pride in students, staff, and community.

Learn more about how Tigard-Tualatin School District is ensuring every student truly counts.

• High School Students Become the Teachers in Cross-Campus Engineering Collaboration (Eagle Point)
• LGSD and EOU Host State Volleyball Championships (La Grande)
• David Douglas Hosts First “Math Carnival,” an Inclusive Family Event (David Douglas)
• Irrigon Jr/Sr High School Mariachi Makes Its Live Debut (Morrow)
• Perfect Playlist for Passing Time (North Santiam)
• Supporting Families Affected by SNAP Benefit Loss (Multnomah ESD)

Have a story you'd like to share? Send it to communications@osba.org and use #OregonStrong in the subject line.

We’ll get right to what folks want to know from the release of the December Economic and Revenue Forecast on November 19th: Net General Fund and Lottery resources are up $318.8 million from the September Forecast released on August 27th but are still down $635.9 million since the Close of Session Forecast. Even though this forecast is probably as good as we could have hoped for, there is still a lot of uncertainty about pending federal decisions moving forward. We estimate that the December Forecast takes the previously forecasted General Fund and Lottery deficit for approved budgets from approximately $400 million down to approximately $80 million. The overall state budget hole is still likely closer to $600 million, which we explain further down.

To reiterate - projected Net General Fund and Lottery Resources for the 2025-27 biennium have increased by $318.8 million from the September 2025 forecast. Right now, there is no personal or corporate kicker projected in the 2025-27 biennium. One area to keep a close eye on: the Corporate Activity Tax (CAT), which funds the Student Success Act programs, has decreased by $31.1 million since the September Forecast. The Legislature kept a $100 million CAT reserve for 2025-27, so projected collections are still in positive territory.

We believe there are three key takeaways for Superintendents and COSA leaders from the December Forecast:

1. While the news is about as good as we could have hoped for, K-12 advocates still need to be vigilant and make a clear and convincing case to center the growing needs of our students and protect all K-12 programs from cuts or reductions in the 2025-27 budget. There will be many worthy programs, particularly in the Human Services sector, that are facing additional devastating cuts due to the passage of HR 1 (most notably Medicaid and SNAP).
2. It is also important to remember that the Legislature is forecasting other potential costs that have not been budgeted for (like wildfire mitigation costs, HR 1 state implementation costs, keeping an ending balance for the state general fund, etc.) Of note, at briefings earlier this fall the total state budget deficit was estimated at approximately $915 million – if you factor in the December Forecast that number should be closer to $600 million.
3. There will be one more Revenue Forecast released on February 4th that will be used by state leaders to make any final adjustments to the budgets; we are less than 6 months into this 24-month budget cycle. We will need to be ready to adjust our advocacy efforts to deal with any potential downturns as the 2026 Session begins.

Key Links with Additional Info:

• Office of Economic Analysis Presentation to the Revenue Committee - **Important note – Team COSA includes projected lottery revenues in the numbers we share in our report because a significant portion of those funds go into the State School Fund. Generally, the Economist will highlight General Fund dollars in their report so you may see slight differences in the COSA numbers.
• Legislative Revenue Office Forecast Summary
• Legislative Revenue Office Summary of Oregon Reserve Funds

Please let Morgan Allen (morgan@cosa.k12.or.us) or Parasa Chanramy (parasa@cosa.k12.or.us) know if you have any additional questions.

Teacher Non-Renewal Statutory Update - HB 2900 (Amends ORS 342.815)

During the 2025 Regular Session, the Oregon Legislature passed HB 2900 modifying and broadening the definition of “Contract Teacher” within the Accountability for Schools for the 21st Century Law. Effective January 1, 2026, the definition of “Contract Teacher” will include three distinct pathways that a “Probationary Teacher” in a fair dismissal district can transition to a “Contract Teacher.” The Oregon Legislature kept the previous two pathways and expanded the definition of “Contract Teacher” to now include a shorter – two-year probationary period for teachers who have previously satisfied a three-year probationary period in any other Oregon fair dismissal district and were retained for the next succeeding school year. After January 1, 2026, a “Probationary Teacher” will transition to a “Contract Teacher” in one of the three pathways set forth below:

• After three years if:

The teacher has been regularly employed by the fair dismissal district for an initial probationary period of three successive years and has been retained for the next succeeding school year.

• After two years if:

The teacher has completed a three-year probationary period in another Oregon school district/education service district; and

§ Is retained for the next succeeding school year.

• After one year if:

The district school board enters into an agreement for a one-year probationary period with a teacher who has satisfied the three-year probationary period in another Oregon school district and has been retained for the next succeeding school year.

Please be advised – there are a variety of potential interpretations of HB 2900 as to teachers who, in the 2025-2026 school year, are currently in their third probationary year after having successfully completed a probationary period in a previous district. Under one interpretation, teachers in their third probationary year who have previously completed the probationary period in another district may automatically become contract teachers on January 1, 2026. You are advised to reach out to legal counsel prior to January 1, 2026, to discuss teachers who are currently in their third probationary year.

Best Practices

• Review personnel files of all probationary teachers to determine whether they achieved contract status at any other Oregon school district prior to being hired at your district.
• Clearly identify the applicable probationary term for each probationary teacher.
• Continue to regularly evaluate your probationary teachers and engage in performance coaching.

THIS DOCUMENT PROVIDES GENERAL GUIDANCE AND IS NOT LEGAL ADVICE.

If you have questions, please reach out to your general counsel or contact OSBA/ PACE attorneys at pacelegal@osba.org